Hypotheses
- The FMLN are responsible.
- The Salvadoran Army are responsible.
| The FMLN | The Salvadoran Army | |
|---|---|---|
| FMLN: The Salvadoran Army are responsible. | - | + |
| Salvadoran Army: The FMLN are responsible. | + | - |
| Castro: "Ultra-leftist groups" were responsible. | + | - |
| The murders took place during curfew. | - | + |
| The murderers were "between 30 and 40 unidentified men wearing military uniforms". | - | + |
Results
The "afs" and "p2k" labels on the evidence signify that the evidence fits an argumentation scheme for presumptive reasoning: Argument from Sign and Position to Know respectively. The Position to Know arguments are essentially each side blaming the other (and Castro is Foreign Minister, so will naturally take the army's point-of-view rather than the rebels) and could be dismissed with "They would say that wouldn't they?". The Argument from Sign pieces of evidence point to the Salvadoran Army being responsible, but it can be argued that Argument from Sign is weak evidence. President Cristiani makes exactly that point (see here), but his evidence doesn't appear in the above ACH matrix because it is not "diagnostic".